Thursday, May 17, 2012
12:44 p.m. PDT
12:44 p.m. PDT
Serving San Marino, Pasadena, San Gabriel, Alhambra, Arcadia, South Pasadena
Carrie’s Analysis For the Most Recent Quarter:
Published 02/16/2011
- 5:05 p.m. PDT
by Carrie Benuska
Several articles in the Los Angeles Times have been published recently regarding the favorable market in San Marino. San Marino happens to be the only luxury zip code which has recovered losses incurred during the recession. Most luxury communities continue to experience significantly lower average sales prices, yet the San Marino data shows that we have surpassed even our peak. The positive data mixed with the good press should help boost buyer and seller confidence.
With all of the positive data, though, many realtors still sense that San Marino has not completely recovered. I share this feeling and decided to try to find out what could be the source of the problem.
The first piece of the puzzle is that there was a lot of activity in the very high-end market during 2010 (over $5,000,000). This activity skewed both our average sales price and average price per square foot data to the high side.
The second place that I looked was the 3 bedroom and 4 bedroom categories, which represent a very high percentage of yearly sales in San Marino. Rather than using the average sales price, I decided to look at the median sales price. The median is helpful in this circumstance, because it takes out the highs and the lows and finds the value right in the middle. Therefore, one extremely high or low sale would not skew the numbers.
When looking at the median sales price in both the 3 bedroom and 4 bedroom categories since 2007, the pattern is quite clear. 3 bedroom median sales prices have recovered all loses and are slightly improved over 2007 figures. The 4 bedroom category, on the contrary, has steadily decreased each year since 2007 (see table).
The 4 bedroom issue makes intrinsic sense to me. Back in 2007, most San Marino homeowners were doing very well financially and were making tons of money in their real estate investments. Homeowners were regularly trading up, in search of a more prestigious address, an additional bedroom, or a larger yard. This is the activity that seems to have come to an abrupt stop since the recent economic difficulties. Most homeowners appear to be staying put, trying to maintain what they have rather than extending themselves to buy a bigger and more expensive home. The 4 bedroom homes represent the first step-up from the entry 3 bedroom homes.
The San Marino home sales data for the year of 2010 shows that our market has improved since 2009. Both the average sales price and the average price per square foot have increased. In addition, sellers got 98.0% of their asking price compared to 95.7% in 2009. One nagging reminder that San Marino is still in a recovery mode is the continued lower sales volume. A total of 114 properties sold in 2010, compared to 125 properties in 2009.
Several articles in the Los Angeles Times have been published recently regarding the favorable market in San Marino. San Marino happens to be the only luxury zip code which has recovered losses incurred during the recession. Most luxury communities continue to experience significantly lower average sales prices, yet the San Marino data shows that we have surpassed even our peak. The positive data mixed with the good press should help boost buyer and seller confidence.
With all of the positive data, though, many realtors still sense that San Marino has not completely recovered. I share this feeling and decided to try to find out what could be the source of the problem.
The first piece of the puzzle is that there was a lot of activity in the very high-end market during 2010 (over $5,000,000). This activity skewed both our average sales price and average price per square foot data to the high side.
The second place that I looked was the 3 bedroom and 4 bedroom categories, which represent a very high percentage of yearly sales in San Marino. Rather than using the average sales price, I decided to look at the median sales price. The median is helpful in this circumstance, because it takes out the highs and the lows and finds the value right in the middle. Therefore, one extremely high or low sale would not skew the numbers.
When looking at the median sales price in both the 3 bedroom and 4 bedroom categories since 2007, the pattern is quite clear. 3 bedroom median sales prices have recovered all loses and are slightly improved over 2007 figures. The 4 bedroom category, on the contrary, has steadily decreased each year since 2007 (see table).
The 4 bedroom issue makes intrinsic sense to me. Back in 2007, most San Marino homeowners were doing very well financially and were making tons of money in their real estate investments. Homeowners were regularly trading up, in search of a more prestigious address, an additional bedroom, or a larger yard. This is the activity that seems to have come to an abrupt stop since the recent economic difficulties. Most homeowners appear to be staying put, trying to maintain what they have rather than extending themselves to buy a bigger and more expensive home. The 4 bedroom homes represent the first step-up from the entry 3 bedroom homes.
